Managing the trade‐off between groundwater resources and large‐scale agriculture: the case of pistachio production in Iran

Benefiting from historically favorable conditions (e.g. low costs, fertile land, and abundant water), pistachio producers in Rafsanjan, Iran, have flourished, with orchards production growing dramatically since the 1970s. Today, however, enormous increase water consumption associated has severely depleted groundwater aquifers, causing widespread shortages region. In this article, we develop a comprehensive system dynamics model, combining agronomic, economic, hydrologic, behavioral aspects to analyze long-term implications of production. Our research contributes literature agricultural management three significant ways: (i) it provides validated quantitative model exploring farming for region; (ii) explicitly captures decision rules orchard growth investment; (iii) addresses natural common-pool-resources problem very long-time horizons. We consider several policies aimed at addressing transfers, drip irrigation, financial subsidies, income tax, pricing, land purchasing). results suggest that effectiveness efficiency transfer irrigation respectively), albeit preferred by farmers, lead better-before-worse results, depleting storage long term. Insights can help policymakers better understanding unintended consequences their policies. © 2021 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf Society.